Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Details emerge for the shortened line

As reported in the PI yesterday
A shorter new Seattle monorail line could cost $7.2 billion less overall and require a supportive car-license tax for 16 years less than initially thought, the monorail agency's director said today.

John Haley said continuing to assume an average 6 percent average annual growth in the tax revenue the revised, 10-mile-long line from West Seattle to Interbay will cost $3.9 billion, including $1.7 billion in construction and initial operation costs plus interest on bonds repaid over 31 years.
However, the accuracy of the 6% growth rate is still being debated.
Haley said the model used by Seattle economist Dick Conway to calculate his 4.4 percent annual estimate hasn't been made available for testing. "We've not found a reason to change" the 6.1 percent figure, he said.

Conway said he hasn't been asked to supply his model, though he could...Conway believes the inflation factor should be based on historic trends, while [Randall] Pozdena [of ECONorthwest] believes it can based on influences such as the age of the overall vehicle fleet and consumer tastes in cars.


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